Motorsport Analytics

About which we know relatively little

The problem with previewing LMGT3…

…is that almost none of these teams existed this time last year, and some of the ones that did were in different series. It’s probably easiest to detail this in table form:

Why? Well, when ACO switched from the GTE class to the GT3 class for this year they set off an absolute feeding frenzy for places amongst the scores of qualified GT3 drivers and the wider cast of manufacturers, and while I broadly agree with the decisions to keep a variety of manufacturers by limiting each to two entries and also to give preference to manufacturers running hypercars and teams currently in the championship (so as to not risk leaving them nowhere to race), the result was a massive upheaval due to the jockeying for places:

• TF Sport, an Aston Martin team, linked up with Corvette, who’d lost WEC legend Ben Keating as he doesn’t like GT3 cars
• Proton, a Porsche team (which still runs Porsches in other series) linked up with Ford to enter the Mustangs
• ASP, normally a Mercedes outfit, signed a deal with Toyota to race the Lexus RC F to take advantage of Toyota’s Hypercar entry giving them a guaranteed slot
• McLaren, realising it was probably the only way in, joined up with former LMP2 squad United Autosports to take advantage of the preferential treatment for teams already racing in WEC.

All this changing of manufacturers also inevitably lead to driver changes, since most pro drivers are contracted to a manufacturer rather than a team, meaning that (for example) José Maria Lopez had never raced for ASP before – because they were a Mercedes outfit – but now they’re running a Lexus, he is.

In this section I’ve not discussed the cars and the balance of performance regulations as much as I have in Hypercar. This in large part reflects a confidence that the ACO and FIA will be able to do what they managed most of the time in GTE and balance the cars pretty well. The prologue suggests that may be somewhat optimistic, with the Aston Martins and Ferraris over a second quicker per lap on average than the Fords and Lamborghinis, but hopefully this will be corrected over time.

Teams that were actually in WEC last year

Even these aren’t actually immune to upheaval – the Iron Lynx squad was running Porsches last year since Lamborghini didn’t have a GTE car, and Ferrari have moved from the 488 to the newer 296 (which didn’t have a GTE model). Taking these teams in championship order:

Iron Lynx/Dames

The championship runners-up have to be considered amongst the favourites in the following year, particularly when the champions haven’t returned. Last season the Dames were WEC’s most consistent outfit, finishing top 5 in every race bar the first (when their diffuser fell off after Rahel Frey ran wide, turning a mistake that should have cost a couple of seconds into one that cost a couple of minutes). They had the strongest Bronze driver in Sarah Bovy but tended to lack ultimate pace with neither Rahel Frey nor Michelle Gatting matching works platinum drivers. The arrival of Doriane Pin offers hope on that front though, since in some spectacular stints at Watkins Glen and Road Atlanta she suggested that she can run on platinum pace, at least in clear air. Still it’s hard to call any team favourites with so many entirely new outfits representing near-complete unknowns, and even harder to do so for Iron Dames given that the Lamborghinis were the second slowest cars on average in the prologue.

The sister #60 Iron Lynx car was…rarely a contender last year excepting a single podium at Monza, and it’s hard to see that replacing Alessio Picarello with Franck Perera (if anything a slight downgrade) will help matters.

Iron Lynx will have had a good season if: The Dames win multiple races and challenge for the championship while the #60 picks up points here and there and maybe sneaks a podium again.

AF Corse

Thomas Flohr (owner of title sponsor VistaJet)’s #54 squad was almost as consistent as the Dames last year, only having two races outside the top 5 (one of which was mostly caused by Jacques Villeneuve being so shocked the Vanwall was actually faster than something he overtook with a wheel on the grass and collected the Ferrari). In a season where most teams were inconsistent it was enough for third in the championship. The same drivers return this year and will likely produce more of the same, hopefully not including being collected by a boutique Hypercar. They should probably keep an eye on the Isotta Fraschini just in case.

All of the #55’s drivers were in top-level endurance racing last year, just in different cars. Francois Heriau and Simon Mann entered this year’s Asian Le Mans Series alongside Davide Rigon, however, and weren’t particularly impressive, finishing 8th overall with a single third place the highlight. Alessio Rovera is probably a similar strength driver to Rigon overall, so there’s not much reason to expect more from them at a higher level in WEC.

AF Corse will have had a good year if: The #54 challenges for the title while the #55 manages a couple of podiums

Aston Martin Racing (both cars)

The Heart of Racing team arrived in WEC midway through last season, taking over the old NorthWest AMR entry. They performed creditably enough, finishing 7th, 6th, 7th and 3rd in their four races – the resulting 51 points being the fifth most in those races. Ian James and Alex Riberas also ran (in different cars) in IMSA, with James coming second in the Michelin Endurance Cup including beating a field of pro drivers to a spectacular pole position at Petit Le Mans (to be fair, he was the only driver to correctly read the conditions and thus run on slicks instead of wet tyres, but surviving on his slicks while the track dried was no mean feat). Riberas and Ross Gunn didn’t fair so well, being last of the five full-season GTD Pro entries (though all five were sufficiently close this did include two sprint race wins).

The #777 was in WEC last year in theory, but for whatever reason the non-Am drivers have completely turned over and none of them raced together last year. Marco Sorensen is amongst the absolute best GT drivers around, a triple world champion who’s won at Le Mans and Daytona. Erwan Bastard’s a raw but promising Silver driver who’s won in GT4 and was at least reasonable in GTWC Europe’s Silver Cup last year – or in other words, we don’t know enough about him to know if he’s the next Nico Varrone or if he’ll be entirely average. Satoshi Hoshino’s been one of the weaker Bronzes in WEC recently, though he’s replaced for Qatar by Clement Mateu, who had a semi-decent season in GTWC last year but has otherwise been unremarkable.

AMR will have had a good year if: They pick up regular points and come in in the top half of them table. Though the #777 could be literally anywhere and late safety cars could easily lead to wins for Sorensen.

Proton Competition

Proton’s Ryan Hardwick and Zacharie Robichon entered three races in WEC alongside Harry Tincknell and the four Michelin Endurance Cup races in IMSA with Jan Heylen last year, with mixed results ranging from “having the car irreparably smashed up by somebody else in free practice” at Sebring to a podium at Watkins Glen and fourth at Spa. They’re back for the full season in WEC alongside Ben Barker, who maybe has a slightly worse record overall than Tincknell (presumably Proton thought so, which is why Tinkers is in the Hypercar) but probably not by much. Still, this looks like an outfit that’ll pick up points but not challenge for the title.

The sister #88 car combines two drivers in Dennis Olsen and Giorgio Roda, who’ve had fairly average returns in GTWC (and in Roda’s case last year in LMP2 in the European Le Mans Series). Roda did recently have a better run to third in the LMP2 category in the Asian Le Mans Series (mind, that series was fairly close to a two-horse race between 99 Racing and Crowdstrike/APR, so finishing third is perhaps not so great). Mikkel Pedersen’s had better returns running in LMGTE in WEC, with a win and a podium (and, um, a DNF at Le Mans) in each of the last two years. Still, overall this looks much like another mid-table concern, not helped by Ford’s initially not-great pace in the Prologue.

Proton will have had a good season if: they regularly pick up points and finish in the top half. Unlike with Aston Martin there’s less likelihood of fluking wins with late safety cars as they don’t have great Platinums.

Teams that at least raced together somewhere

WRT

Valentino Rossi’s arrival in the World Endurance Championship probably makes WRT the most notable squad in the GT ranks, and his #46 crew may well be a challenger for overall honors. Rossi and Maxime Martin’s fairly middling returns in GTWC (better in the sprint races, which is unfortunate given we’re previewing an endurance championship) are better than they appear since, having entered the Pro category, Rossi was effectively racing at Platinum. He’s classed (and races in WEC as) a Silver though, and in that company is one of the faster drivers. You could say the same for his Bronze-rated team-mate Ahmad Al Harthy, who is probably better in LMP2 than GT cars but has still been consistently just a slight step behind Ben Keating (who, not liking the GT3 specification, has not returned to defend his LMGTE Am title) and Sarah Bovy when the Bronze-rated drivers face off in WEC in recent years. Martin’s probably more average than above-average as Pro drivers go, but that is unlikely to stop the #46 being title contenders.

The #31 is probably less likely to contend for the title but will still be in the mix on occasions. The Bronze driver, Darren Leung, is the British GT champion and can reasonably be said to be taking a couple of steps up this year. He certainly didn’t embarrass himself in the recent Asian Le Mans Series but wasn’t great either – still, he may well improve as he gets more used to the higher level. Sean Gelael has had a remarkable run of finishing second in LMP2 championships but lacks experience in GTs (and, frankly, is somewhat flattered by his LMP2 record as the car tended to go forwards once he got out of it). Augusto Farfus is a similar sort of driver to Maxime Martin – solid journeyman pro but not likely to flatter Geleal the way being partnered with Ferdinand Habsburg, Robert Kubica and Robin Frijns over the years has.

WRT will have had a good season if: A solid championship challenge featuring wins for the #46 is backed up by a top-half performance from the #31.

Manthey

Like Aston Martin, Porsche went with two separate squads supported by a single quasi-factory unit (Manthey for Porsche, Prodrive for Aston). Of the two, it’s the Pure Rxcing unit that has raced together before. They drive better than they spell, winning the recently concluded Asian Le Mans Series fairly convincingly and coming fifth in last years GTWC Endurance Cup. The GT standard in ALMS didn’t seem particularly high (in part because with LMP2 only open to Pro/Am entries, many of the best Bronze drivers entered the prototype class), but they’ve still got the advantage of familiarity with each other and should be competitive, particularly in the early running. Drivers-wise, Malykhin’s won a string of titles working his way up the ladder at Bronze and may be one of the strongest Bronzes in the competition. Sturm and Bachler have less glittering records but together they’ve been a formidable crew.

The EMA team is more thrown together, comprising a GT World Challenge Australia champion at Bronze, a Porsche Supercup driver at Silver and another endurance racing great with multiple Le Mans and Daytona wins at Platinum. They’re probably a weaker crew than the Pure Rxcing group (if more pronounceable) but as we saw with Nico Varrone very inexperienced Silvers occasionally turn out to be the Next Big Thing and if that happens they’ll definitely be contenders – and just like Sorensen, if Lietz is handed an opportunity by a late safety car he’s likely to take it. I wouldn’t be surprised if they turn out to be contenders, but I don’t expect it.

Manthey will have had a good year if: between the two cars a championship contender emerges and they win some races

Teams where I’m guessing even more than usual

None of these squads have raced together more than once before this year so we’re left assuming the drivers will work well together…

TF Sport

Between them, TF Sport (2022) and Corvette (2023) have won the last two GTE Am championships – but both of those were driven by Ben Keating, who’s no fan of the GT3 ruleset and has thus stuck to his LMP2 challenge in IMSA this year. It’s safe to say that Tom van Rompuy, who finished 12th in LMP2 Pro/Am in ELMS (or rather would have done had he not missed a race), and Hiroshi Koizumi, who was second in the Le Mans Cup, are not in Keating’s class as Bronze drivers. Daniel Juncadella, on the other hand, has won almost as many GT races as Keating in recent times and took the Endurance Cup in IMSA last year, while his Silver-rated team-mate Sebastian Baud came close to doing the same thing in GTWC Europe but ultimately finished second in the Bronze Cup. Between them, Koizumi, Baud and Juncadella may be contenders but will need Koizumi to handle what’s arguably two steps up very well, or else to have any disadvantage he might leave them wiped out by cautions.

Rui Andrade, like Sean Gelael, is a prototype driver dropping down to GT because LMP2 isn’t in WEC any more. That said, Andrade generally seemed to be being carried by his higher-rated team-mates less than Geleal was, but his lack of GT experience is likely to count against the team, as is the fact that Eastwood – while he’s certainly raced plenty in GT cars before – is also more successful in LMP2 machinery. They’ll definitely be in the mix if the ACO suddenly decides to run the LMGT3 class in Oreca 07s, but otherwise it’s unlikely we’ll see them challenging often.

TF Sport will have had a good year if: The #81 gets a few podiums and both cars finish in the top half of the table. I’m not expecting much from a fairly scratch set of crews though Juncadella is always a threat to pull something off.

ASP

Between Jerome Policand’s ASP squad (GTWC Europe) and the Lexus RC F (IMSA GTD Pro) this unit won arguably both the most prestigious Pro-level GT3 series last year, though only Timur Boguslavskiy of the drivers involved is a part of this crew. Boguslavskiy, a multiple GTWC champion (even at Pro while still being a Silver-rated driver) is probably the most impressive part of the #78 crew, with Arnold Robin having been largely anonymous with a best finish of 5th in ELMS last year and Kelvin van der Linde having a fairly limited endurance racing CV outside of the Nürburgring 24 Hours which really is its own beast.

Esteban Masson and Takeshi Kimura are the drivers responsible for the phrase “more than once” appearing in my statements about drivers not having driven together, since they teamed up with Daniel Serra to finish fifth in last year’s 8 Hours of Bahrain. That’s the sort of place Kimura normally finishes, having been 4th in ELMS and 7th in WEC’s GT classes last season. That’s literally Masson’s only experience with sportscar racing, so possibly it’s not great that he’s been paired with a Pro driver in Jose Maria Lopez who hasn’t ever raced a GT3 car as far as I can tell. He is, of course, a double champion in the Hypercar category, but you do wonder if this team might take a while to get up to speed.

ASP will have had a good season if: their inexperienced crews come on strong in the second half of the season, building towards a serious challenge with the new Lexus next year. Or if they turn out to have a significant car advantage for much of the season and take advantage.

United Autosports

United, like several drivers I’ve mentioned, are an LMP2 squad finding a new home in LMGT3. They’re going to be hard to predict, since almost all of their drivers are also newcomers to GT racing.

The #59 combines the British GT runner-up (Cottingham, Bronze) with the winner of the Porsche Carrera Cup Brazil (Costa, Silver) and the 2021 FRECA champion who’s bailed on his single-seater career after two unproductive seasons in Formula 3 (Saucy, Gold). Cottingham was OK but no better than that in the Asian Le Mans Series, and I have absolutely no idea how good either Costa or Saucy will turn out to be, though the latter has put some fast times in in practice sessions. You’d have to count inexperience against them, though.

The #95 is only marginally more predictable. Caygill got a couple of podiums in ELMS in 2022, and finished 9th overall but it was in LMP3 and he’s not appeared in GT cars much. Nico Pino has managed some reasonable results in ELMS and IMSA in LMP3 and in ELMS in LMP2, but again has no GT experience, and Marino Sato has been primarily a single-seater driver who did, however, have a strong season in ELMS LMP2 last year, winning three of the last four races. Hiroshi Hamaguchi was originally announced as the Bronze in this car before Caygill subbed in for Qatar; he was mid-table in both GTWC Asia and the Le Mans Cup last year, which doesn’t augur well for taking a decided step up to WEC.

United Autosports will have had a good season if: I have no idea. I doubt they do either. Somebody lets them race LMP2 cars again?

An Actual Prediction, Then?

To be honest, anybody who could predict this would have to know way more about GT racing than I do. But putting the squads into broad categories:

Title Contenders: WRT #46, Iron Dames, AF Corse #54, Pure Rxcing, possibly ASP #78 because ruling ASP out seems silly

Possible Race Winners/Above Average: Heart of Racing, D’Station Racing, TF Sport #82, AF Corse #55, EMA

Wildcards: United #59, Lexus #87, probably United #95 as well

Also-Rans: BMW #31, TF Sport #81, Proton, Iron Lynx, ASP #87

If I’m not spectacularly wrong about at least one of these cars it’ll be a surprise.